Eurozone Flash PMI's Suggest Recession May Be in Wings
Europe Update: Flash Manufacturing PMI Indices
The flash readings for February’s Markit’s Flash Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMI) for Europe were updated today and the numbers weren’t pretty. The data indicates that the European economy sank back into a contraction mode in February, which revives fears that the overall region will enter a recession in the near-term.
The Composite PMI (which includes readings from both the manufacturing and services sectors) reading for the Eurozone came in at 49.7, which was (a) below the all-important 50 market (b) below the consensus for 50.6 and (c) last month’s reading of 50.4.
The good news is that the “flash” data was collected before Eurozone finance ministers agreed a 130 billion euro bailout loan package for Greece this week. A Markit spokesman said this could lead to sharper than normal revisions when final figures are released at the start of March.
Below are the details of Markit’s Flash PMI readings:
February Preliminary Manufacturing PMI’s:
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: 49.0 vs. consensus 49.5
- January: 48.8
- December: 48.7
- November: 46.9
- October: 47.1
- September: 48.5
- August: 49.0
- July: 50.4
- June: 52.0
- May: 54.6
- April: 58.0
- March: 57.7
- Germany Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 vs. consensus 51.0
- January: 51.0
- December: 50.9
- November: 47.9
- October: 49.1
- September: 50.3
- August: 50.9
- July: 52.0
- June: 54.6
- May: 57.7
- April: 62.0
- March: 60.9
- France Manufacturing PMI: 50.2 vs. consensus 49.0
- January: 48.5
- December: 48.5
- November: 47.6
- October: 48.5
- September: 48.2
- August: 49.1
- July: 50.4
- June: 52.5
- May: 54.9
- April: 57.5
- March: 56.6
February Preliminary Service Sector PMI’s:
- Eurozone Services PMI: 49.4 vs. consensus 50.6
- January: 50.4
- December: 50.5
- November: 47.8
- October: 46.4
- September: 48.8
- August: 51.5
- July: 51.4
- June: 53.7
- May: 55.4
- April: 56.9
- March: 56.9
- Germany Services PMI: 52.6 vs. consensus 53.9
- January:53.7
- December: 54.9
- November: 51.4
- October: 49.1
- September: 49.7
- August: 50.9
- July: 52.9
- June:56.7
- May: 54.9
- April: 57.7
- March: 60.1
- France Services PMI: 50.3 vs. consensus 52.5
- January: 52.3
- December: 51.7
- November: 49.3
- October: 44.6
- September: 51.5
- August: 56.8
- July: 54.2
- June: 56.1
- May: 62.8
- April: 60.0
- March: 60.7
Recall that readings over 50 represent growth in the sector while readings under 50 suggest the manufacturing sector is contracting.
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Posted on 2/22/2012 at 8:18 AM
