LEI Up For Fourth Consecutive Month
Economic Update: US Leading Economic Index
The Conference Board reported that their Leading Economic Index rose +0.4% in January to a reading of 94.9, which was below the consensus for an increase of +0.5%.
The Conference Board’s Ataman Ozilidrim said, “This fourth consecutive gain in the LEI reflected fairly widespread strength among its components, pointing to somewhat more positive economic conditions in early 2012. The LEI’s increase in January was led not only by improving financial and credit indicators, but also rising average workweek in manufacturing. These both offset consumers’ outlook about the economy, which remained pessimistic, though slightly less so. Meanwhile, the CEI rose again in January as employment, income, and sales data all point to improving current economic conditions despite a lack of contribution from industrial production.”
Ken Goldstein, an economist at The Conference Board, said, “Recent data reflect an economy that started the year on a positive note. The CEI shows some small signs of economic strengthening in the fourth quarter and continued to point in this direction in January. The LEI suggests these conditions will continue and could possibly even pick up this spring and summer.”
The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. rose by +0.2% in January to 103.5 (2004=100).
About the LEI: The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component – primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
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Posted on 2/17/2012 at 10:09 AM
